Could Canada Join the EU? Exploring Brussels-Ottawa Partnership Prospects

Canada’s deepening ties with the European Union are raising questions about the bloc’s geographical limits and the future of EU-Canada relations as Ottawa seeks closer collaboration with Brussels amid shifting global alliances.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s upcoming visit to Strasbourg in mid-September marks a significant step in strengthening EU-Canada relations, following his attendance at the European Political Community summit in Armenia last May. The visit, which includes an address to the European Parliament, signals Ottawa’s growing engagement with European institutions as geopolitical tensions reshape transatlantic partnerships.

European Parliament President Roberta Metsola emphasized the visit’s importance, stating it would be “an opportunity to deepen EU-Canada ties and strengthen our bond.” The move comes as Canada intensifies trade disputes with the United States, pushing Ottawa to explore alternative partnerships. Eric Maurice, an expert from the European Policy Center, compared Canada’s role to that of the UK post-Brexit—a non-EU state sharing deep values and interests with the bloc.

While full EU membership for Canada remains unlikely due to geographical constraints outlined in the Treaty on European Union, discussions are emerging about new forms of association. Article 49 of the treaty restricts membership to “European States,” though the definition remains debated. Historically, the EU rejected Morocco’s application in 1987 on geographical grounds, and Turkey’s membership negotiations have stalled despite partial European territory.

A 2024 poll by Nanos Research found that 28% of Canadians support full EU membership, while 29% somewhat support it. However, Sébastien Maillard, an adviser at the Jacques Delors Institute, noted that Canada’s distance from Europe makes such a scenario unrealistic. Instead, experts suggest exploring models similar to Norway’s participation in the single market or the UK’s post-Brexit trade deal with the EU.

Carney has highlighted the need for middle powers to unite in response to shifting geopolitical dynamics. In a January speech at the World Economic Forum, he warned that powerful nations were exploiting economic leverage, stating, “Middle powers must act together because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu.”

Italian MEP Sandro Gozi, from the constitutional affairs committee, argued that the EU should consider a “special association” status for Canada, including enhanced political dialogue and defense cooperation. Such a partnership could serve as a model for future alliances among democracies.

While Canada and the EU already have a trade agreement, further integration would require Canada to align with EU regulations without direct influence over their formulation—a potential democratic challenge. Gozi suggested that any future EU-Canada agreement should also prompt discussions on broader EU reforms to adapt to new geopolitical realities.

As the EU navigates its evolving role in global affairs, Canada’s strategic pivot toward Europe could test the bloc’s boundaries and redefine transatlantic cooperation.

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