Manipur Census 2027 deferred amid NRC demands and ethnic tensions

Manipur’s decennial census has been postponed after the central government decided to wait until the state’s National Register of Citizens (NRC) is completed. The decision, announced on August 31, came after a meeting in New Delhi with Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla and Chief Minister Yumnam Khemchand Singh. Officials warned that conducting a headcount amid the Kuki‑Meitei and Kuki‑Naga conflicts could spark fresh tensions before the state’s 60‑member assembly elections, scheduled for later this year.

The census, originally set to begin on September 1, had already begun data collection in January, a key step before delimitation. However, several community groups and civil‑society organisations (CSOs) have demanded that the NRC be finalized first. The Meitei community, the majority in Imphal Valley, and the Meitei‑Pangal Muslims have joined the NRC‑before‑census camp. The Nagas, who dominate five of Manipur’s ten hill districts, also support the NRC. In contrast, the Kuki‑Zo Council backs the census, arguing that an impartial count would counter allegations of “illegal migration” and provide a fair basis for delimitation. Kukis fear that using the 1951 census as a base could lead to unfair exclusion of their own members.

Pro‑NRC protests intensified with shutdowns of central and state offices. A coalition of 14 CSOs, including the Campaign for Just and Fair Delimitation, met Governor Bhalla and later travelled to New Delhi to brief the Union Home Secretary, the Registrar General of India and the High‑Level Committee on Demographic Change. They argued that Manipur needs an NRC to resolve long‑standing ethnic disputes that have plagued the state since May 3, 2023.

The call for an NRC is not new. In 1981 the Assam census was deferred because of the Assam agitation against undocumented immigrants. The 1991 Jammu and Kashmir census was paused amid rising extremism and the exodus of Kashmiri Pandits. The 2021 national census was postponed due to the COVID‑19 pandemic and rescheduled for 2026‑27. The current deferment follows a similar pattern: a census is suspended when citizenship issues threaten to destabilise the region.

The 14 CSOs’ memorandum, submitted on July 1, claims that the NRC is essential to identify “illegal migrants” from Bangladesh, Myanmar and Mizoram who they say threaten the state’s “original inhabitants”. They list the Inpuis, Kabuis, Liangmais, Maos, Marams, Meiteis, Poumais, Rongmeis, Tangkhuls and Zemes as the original peoples of Manipur. According to the CSOs, the Meitei‑Pangal population grew from 4,881 in 1881 to 239,886 in 2011, a 4,814 % increase, while the Meiteis and the original tribes grew by 880 % and 897 %, respectively. They also cite a 2,165 % rise in the hill districts’ population—from 25,384 in 1881 to 549,599 in 2011—attributing it to migration from Bangladesh, Myanmar and Mizoram since the 15th century. The CSOs argue that those who cannot link their 1951 census identity to the proposed NRC should be declared non‑citizens and deported.

The Manipur government has long supported the NRC. The Legislative Assembly passed a unanimous resolution on August 5, 2022, calling for a State Population Commission and the NRC’s implementation. The resolution was partly prompted by the 2021 Myanmar coup, which led to hundreds of Kuki‑Chin refugees crossing into Manipur’s porous borders. Many of these refugees are ethnically related to the Kukis of Manipur and the Mizos of Mizoram. Their arrival has been blamed for escalating ethnic clashes that have claimed almost 300 lives and displaced more than 62,000 people since May 2023.

The census would also affect political representation. Non‑tribal Meiteis fear a reduced share of the 40 assembly seats in Imphal Valley, while Nagas worry that the hill districts’ 20 seats—currently split evenly between Kukis and Nagas—could tilt in favour of Kukis if the census data shows a larger Kuki population. Nagas also argue that the hill areas deserve at least three additional seats based on 2011 population figures.

The NRC itself is a relic of independent India’s first census in 1951, when all states were required to compile a citizen register. Assam was the only state to complete the exercise, which was overseen by the Supreme Court and began in 2014. The draft NRC, released in 2019, excluded 19.06 lakh of the 3.3 crore applicants. The Assam NRC remains incomplete, with legal challenges pending in the Supreme Court.

As the central government weighs the risks of conducting a census amid unresolved citizenship disputes, the deferment in Manipur underscores the delicate balance between demographic data collection and ethnic stability. The outcome will shape the state’s political map and the lives of its diverse communities in the years ahead.

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